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Mitigating Circumstances

In the conclusion of her 1999 book, Humanitarian Crises, Jennifer Leaving postulates:

An extended period after intervention awaits acknowledgment and definition by the international community. This period, referred to as the “gray period of chronic insecurity” by USAID officials may persist for months or years [emphasis added]. The challenge of stabilization during this period includes deciding among a number of economic and security options: peace enhancement or crisis resolution; whether or not to disarm the population; policy regarding demobilization and reentry of soldiers and militia from border areas; maintenance of an ongoing external security presence or helping to establish an internal one; and whether or not to support, with expertise and finances, a process of trials or truth commissions. Time is frequently of the essence, in that the stakes of not succeeding in reinstituting some acceptable semblance of the rule of law can be very high.

I’m not going to pretend that looking through this book for forty-five minutes has made me an instant expert on the subject, but I think it’s safe to assume that this is where the U.S. now stands in Iraq—albeit at a much larger scale than the book exemplified using Haiti, Rwanda, Somalia, and a handful of others. Clearly, the hardest parts of this war for the liberation of a nation, and how we will ultimately measure its success or failure rest in the delicate (and diametrically opposed) balance of diplomacy, bureaucracy, intervention, and humanitarian aid.

I concur that how we help Iraq will be critical to transitioning it to a productive nation that contributes in a good way to the rest of world.

I think we’ll be much more successful than in Somalia. On that excursion our troops suffered from ‘mission creep.’ The original mission went from simply making sure the hapless UN was able to get food to those who needed it, to a manhunt for the warlord Aidid. Once we had the “Blackhawk Down’ incident we pulled out and the region plunged further into disarray.

When I see Iraq right now I can’t help but think of Imperial Japan after WW II. We were able to democratize a nation that since its earliest days followed the edicts of an Emperor. We were able to unleash an economomic powerhouse as well.

I think Iraq is in much better shape now than Japan was after WW II. I have faith that Iraq will be able to get on its feet much sooner than many in the talking head class are saying. I mean they have been so wrong about how this operation would turn out anyway, why should they try to be right now. Sorry I can’t help myself.

Also, if we are able to get Iraq to be a modern liberal democracy that will do nothing but be good for the entire region. Iran, Syria etc. are all on notice. Once their peoples see the goodness that freedom always cultivates, they will want the same thing.